This morning, new polls were released showing that Obama's lead has evaporated again.
Last week, in the midst of the financial crisis, but before the debate, Obama had a nine-point lead over his rival, and the American media had once more buried John McCain. They had targeted his running-mate Sarah Palin, blaming her for the fall of the Republican candidate (see yesterday's post).
Today, we press the reset button once again...
After the debate, Obama fell in the polls, although the media proclaimed he was the winner of the confrontation, which of course was not true, and TV viewers were aware of the reality. Voters have probably understood, after hearing him on Friday night in Oxford, that he has nothing to propose in order to solve the terrible financial crisis that threatens the country and the whole world...
"From each taxpayer according to his abilities To each investment banker according to his needs"
"It's Treasury's new motto..."
Nothing new, in fact : this is what we have been repeating here for three months now : Obama is an empty suit.
And today, we are going to show that he is going to lose this election, contrary to what we often hear in the French media.
- First, maths do not favour him
as we said yesterday, he is short of ten million votes in his own camp, and this is the first reason why he is going to lose.
No candidate from any party can hope to win a presidential election if he does not manage to unify his own camp. Obama has tried a little, but he has failed to convince Hillary's voters.
American voters are 215 million.
But in the USa turn-out is generally low, even for a presidential election. In France, about 80 % voters participate, in the USA turn-out rarely exceeds 60 %. It was 64% in 2004, but this figure was exceptional. It means approximately 120 million people will go to the polls on election day.
So if ten million Democrats decide to stay at home, how could Obama win ? Ten million represents about 8% of all voters !
This figure is revealing of Obama's impossible task.
Even if we suppose Obama succeeds in convincing one quarter of these 10 million, it will not be enough. Moreover, if the majority of these Democrats decide to vote McCain, to prevent Obama from being elected, McCain will be elected in a landslide.
For the moment, these pro-Hillary voters are still hesitating, because it is difficult for them to cross the line : voting Republican for the first time in their lives...
However, they may not hesitate on election day, and may decide to punish Obama for stealing the election from Hillary, cheating in the caucuses, and lying on his origins, and many other things...
- Obama's voters are very specific groups.
He can rely on African-Americans, young people, and liberal, well-educated, urban whites. But young people could well decide to stay in their beds on election day, as their turn-out is generally very low !
- The racial factor :
Last week, an Associated Press-Yahoo poll came out with a result showing racism will cost Barack Obama six points on Election Day.
Recent polls by the Gallup organization as Sept. 24, show McCain beating Obama by a 51 to 42 percent margin among white voters, with slight differences between men and women. White men are going to McCain by a 56 to 37 percent. The female vote is going to McCain by a 47 to 45 percent margin, but this figure is regularly changing, and Hillary fans will play a crucial role, as a lot of them are women.
The main reason that John McCain is doing so well is that independents have not abandoned him. In 2004 Independent voters went for Kerry by a 49 to 48 percent margin and in 2006 nonaffiliated voters went for Democratic congressional candidates by a 57-39 percent margin over Republicans. Amongst those who identify themselves as independents McCain is up by 38 to 24% margin.
This is not so surprising, in reality.
While Obama talks a good game about ending the partisanship in Washington, McCain has actually been doing it. Just a few days ago when the bill to help the financial issues in the country was on life support, McCain again put "Country First" and suspended his campaign to do his job as a United States Senator, Obama responded by choosing to keep campaigning.
- Obama is a bad candidate, flip-flopping all the time, and making strategic mistakes
Another reason that McCain is still in the game in the fourth quarter of the race is that Obama is doing a good job beating himself.
Obama's big advantage in this race was that he was the candidate who is going to unite the country and set aside the partisan politics of the decade and bring the country into an era of new politics. Well, this has been a failure, a total failure.
A recent study done by the University of Wisconsin, a very pro-Obama place by the way, found that since the Republican Convention, 77 percent of his ads were negative compared to 56 percent for McCain.
Obama went as far to criticize McCain for not being able to use e-mail, even though McCain's war injuries prevent him from typing.
Even Senator Biden describes the ads as "terrible" and said that he would not have run it.
Also since he is struggling to get those older Hillary voters, basically calling them old and irrelevant in an ad is not the best way to win them over.
Obama loves to tell people that, "we are the change that we seek", yet he does not enact the change he seeks in the level of political discourse. Words, words, words. Only words. There is a striking gap between his words and his deeds.
By not living up to his standards he has shown himself to be the empty suit he is, and American voters are not so stupid to listen to what the MSM (mainstream media) tells them to do.
They own their votes, nobody is going to tell them who they must choose, and for that very reason, Obama is going to lose, and this is going to be a severe defeat...