Some good reasons to hope...

Publié le par french puma


Some McCain supporters think the race can still shift.

And indeed, today, after several days of intense “Obamania” all over the world during which we had the impression that the election was over, it seems that anything might happen in nine days...

In fact, John McCain and Sarah Palin now even have some good reasons to hope :

- first, remember that anything can come out in the last week : as long as people have not voted, one never knows... Both campaigns generally throw out all of their last-minute tricks and ploys during the last week of campaigning. So stay tuned !      


- Secondly, the Obama camp is becoming so presumptuous that some voters could feel irritated by their arrogance and decide to punish the Democrats. The New York Times has just revealed that Obama has already written his Inaugural Address !

- Thirdly, a big variable in this election : undecided voters. They represent about 6 % of the electorate in national polls at the moment, and they form a pivotal bloc in close battleground states like
Florida which could decide the election.

Remember that a lot of these undecided voters are white women... I am sure the constant media attacks on Sarah Palin will finally create a sort of solidarity among women, who may finally decide to support Palin as they helped Hillary win in
New Hampshire.

And one has to bear in mind this data : during the primaries, exit polling indicated that Obama had trouble closing the deal with undecided voters. Generally, those who made their minds in the last moment rather voted for Hillary. It could happen again on Election Day...

- Another good reason to hope : contradictory polls.

Most recent national polls show Obama with a lead between 5 and 15 percentage points. Others show a dead heat. Nobody is able to explain the difference. Some say the race factor could be a possible explanation. Some voters are reluctant to admit they will not vote for Obama because they are afraid of being called racists, especially if they are Democrats...

- Morevoer, turnout remains unknown : will it match the expectations of the pollsters ? It is clear that if a lot of people go to vote, it will favour Obama, as these new voters could well be the young and members of the minorities encouraged by ACORN to register to vote.

But another question is of course the weight of electoral fraud : if those new registered voters are ghosts as they are suspected to be, it is clear that Obama will win easily, but once again, it means he will have cheated as he did during the primaries.

- Last, but not least is of course the “Bradley effect” : polls have shown that the racial factor could cost Obama up to 6 point on Election Day. This is enormous, and it could indeed make him lose.

Let me remind you that this is something that I have always asserted here, on this blog : I think
America is not ready to elect an African-American to the presidency.

My statement has nothing to do with racism : this is only a deep conviction that I have. I may be wrong, but I think there are as many chances to see an African-American in the White House as there are to see an immigrant of North-African origin at the Elysée one day, here in
That is certainly very sad, but I'm afraid that is the reality...

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